MOSCOW/BERLIN: Almost half of Germans (46%) want the next government not to support Ukraine with either weapons or money, according to a survey conducted by the INSA Institute for the t-online portal. Only 28% of respondents believe it is right to continue comprehensive support for Kyiv, 7% are only in favor of further funding, and 8% are exclusively in favor of continuing arms supplies. Another 6% of respondents did not answer the question, and 3% said that it does not matter to them at all.
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A divided country: Five key takeaways from Germany's crucial election
German election campaign shows Germans' discontent with mainstream parties
German voters, hungry for a firm hand in tough times, handed conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz a clear victory in Germany's crucial election on Sunday, punishing Olaf Scholz's centre-left alliance. But a closer look at the results of Germany's snap election, which was held after Scholz's losing government collapsed in bitter disputes in November, shows a divided nation increasingly relegated to the fringes as discontent with the major parties grows.
Across almost every dimension – young/old, east/west, rich/poor, urban/rural and women/men – the election exposed stark differences between Germans in how they see their future in Europe and who they trust to lead them, The Guardian reports.
The surge in support for the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) has eroded its support across the political spectrum, and although it won one in five votes, as a pariah party it will be excluded from any coalition talks, The Guardian reports.
Merz's centre-right CDU/CSU bloc and Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), badly weakened by the election, now appear destined to work together in a coalition government to keep the far right at bay. Merz has set himself the goal of a deal by Easter.
1. Voters unsure how Merz will lead the country
Merz's conservative alliance (CDU/CSU) posted its lowest result since World War II, with just 29%. However, that was enough to put it well ahead of the AfD, which came in second with 21%. Together with the SPD, which won 16% of the vote, the conservative coalition would have a slim majority of 328 seats in the 630-seat parliament.
But compared to many of his predecessors, including the unpopular Scholz, Merz has failed to convince many voters that he has what it takes to lead Germany.
A poll by the Infratest dimap pollster found that only 43% of respondents consider Merz a suitable candidate for chancellor, and only 35% approve of his political performance to date. Scholz, by contrast, began his chancellorship in December 2021 with an approval rating of 66%, replacing veteran leader Angela Merkel, who had been re-elected three times by voters.
Analysts attribute the gap to Merz’s sharper language and his controversial decision in January to seek AfD support for tough anti-immigration measures in parliament.
Critics said he was breaking taboos, while Merz called his stance on migration “uncompromising,” which may not bode well for the upcoming coalition talks.
The far-left party Die Linke, which was the most vocal in condemning Merz’s risky move, won a surprising 8.8 percent, almost double last year’s.
2. East-west German rifts appear to be growing, not shrinking, even 35 years after reunification
One look at the election map shows that Germany remains divided.
The former eastern states (ex-GDR) look like a sea of blue, representing the direct mandates of the far-right AfD party, while the former West Germany is drowning in the black of the CDU/CSU, with splashes of red for the SPD and green for the Greens.
In the eastern states of Saxony and Brandenburg, the AfD was able to significantly improve its result in the 2021 elections, winning around a third of the votes. In both regions, local security authorities classified the AfD branches as extremist organizations seeking to undermine the constitutional order.
Exit polls showed that across Germany, the Alternative was able to secure support across the political spectrum and achieve the strongest result for a far-right party since the Nazi era. The CDU/CSU bloc was particularly hard hit, losing more than 1 million voters nationwide to the far right.
3. Young voters continue to shift to the political periphery
Germans under 35 have been expressing dissatisfaction with the mainstream parties at the ballot box for some time now, which made headlines during the European elections last June when the AfD made unexpected gains among first-time voters.
Crime and immigration, street hooliganism, rising housing costs and fears of conscription if Germany goes to war are all issues that are driving young Germans away from the political center.
In this election, the AfD came out on top among 25- to 34-year-olds with 22%, ahead of the CDU/CSU by 18%, and the Greens and the far-left Linke party by 16%.
Meanwhile, the Linke party has been pushing hard to tax the rich to combat poverty and raise rents, which has attracted the attention of the youngest voters.
The party, which has also made effective use of social media platforms like TikTok to spread its anti-Merz message, won 26% of the vote among 18- to 24-year-olds, ahead of the AfD (21%) and the CDU/CSU (13%).
Germans aged 70 and over are likely to reject the AfD, which won just 10% of the vote among this cohort.
In both the depressed east of Germany and the rust belt of the west, the AfD has been particularly successful among working-class voters, long considered a key base for the Social Democrats. Support for the AfD among workers rose by 17 points to 38%, while the SPD lost 14 points to just 12%.
The gender gap was also clearly visible, with women more likely to support parties on the left and men more likely to support parties on the right. For example, the AfD received 24% of the male vote but only 17% of the female vote, while the SPD and Linke received 18% and 11% of the female vote respectively, compared to 15% and 7% of the male vote.
Rural areas tended to favor the conservatives and the AfD, while in the cities, the Greens and The Left were the most supportive, winning the most votes in Berlin.
4. Most Germans reject the AfD, but they want action on migration
Despite the record numbers, 70% of voters told Infratest dimap that they do not want to see the Alternative for Germany in government. In a separate poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, the figure was even higher at 74%.
However, on the party's core issue of limiting immigration, many Germans agree that the country's border policy has been too lax since Angela Merkel allowed 1.3 million new arrivals into Germany a decade ago.
Although Merkel left office in 2021 and Merz has long been a harsh critic of her stance, 54% of voters still believe their CDU/CSU parties are responsible for "why so many refugees and asylum seekers have come to Germany," according to a poll by Infratest dimap.
But while 64 percent of Germans say they support Merz's tougher line on slowing illegal immigration, Merz's appeal to the far right to drum up support for tougher border measures has done nothing to lift his party above the 30 percent it has consistently achieved in opinion polls.
5. Ukraine matters more than Musk and Vance
Another major development during the election campaign was the endorsement of the AfD by Tesla magnate Elon Musk and later US Vice President JD Vance. However, their intervention, which Merz called “brazen”, failed to make a dent in voter support, The Guardian reports.
The party’s share, which has grown since late 2023 on concerns about crime, immigration and high energy prices, remained at around 20% throughout the campaign.
Serious differences over Ukraine between AfD candidate Alice Weidel, who has called for the lifting of EU sanctions against Moscow and the resumption of Russian gas imports, and Merz, who strongly supports Kyiv, appear to have played a major role.
With Washington’s support for Ukraine under Trump now in doubt, Merz has insisted throughout the campaign that Germany, Ukraine’s second-largest arms supplier after the US, must remain steadfast. On Monday, he wrote on the social network X that “more than ever we must put Ukraine in a position of strength.”
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