MOSCOW: The Russian army took the town of Ugledar in the Donetsk region, which had been fighting for more than two years. RTVI special correspondent Alexey Sochnev talks about why this happened now and how the successes of the Russian military are connected with Zelensky's visit to the United States.
How did it happen that the coal was taken so quickly. The defense of Ugledar was exemplary: concrete fortifications near multi-storey buildings, moats, mining, all according to the canons of military science. The flanks near it — Vodiane, Prechistovka — also boasted excellent engineering fortifications. Only Avdiivka was fortified more powerfully than Ugledar, which was stormed countless times before it was taken. Ugledar was also attacked head—on twice last year - without success. The city has been held by two very serious and experienced brigades since 2022. These are the 72nd Battalion of the Black Cossacks and the 79th brigade of airborne assault troops.
One can ask the question of why they tried to storm Ugledar head-on, and not from the flanks, as they are now? The Russian army was then able to take Pavlovka, a settlement that is essentially part of one agglomeration and is larger in size than this city. On a wave of enthusiasm, seeing a literally empty section of territory in front of them, the command decided that if they accumulated enough forces and struck, the APU would flee from there. They didn't run.
A soldier of the 72nd Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine recalls that in the middle of dozens of Ugledar high-rise buildings, "we had a gorgeous kill zone" - that is, a zone for murders.
They managed to record the enemy's movement in advance and inflict fire damage on him in time before approaching the city.
All this continued until the Ukrainian command was faced with the task of containing the collapse of the front near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, while most of the reserves were in the Kursk direction, and the special forces of the GUR tried to recapture Volchansk. Meanwhile, practically nothing happened in Ugledar, so it was decided to "imperceptibly" transfer parts of the 72nd brigade both from the city itself and from the flanks to the Pokrov direction, near Selidovo, bringing in their place the forces of the defense.
This plan was revealed in the public space by deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Mariana Bezuglaya, saying that by such actions the command puts the city at risk. She was cursed by both the military and everyone around her, since notification of the ongoing rotation is the disclosure of military secrets.
However, I believe that the Russian side found out about all this earlier, because it is impossible to hide the movement of such a large amount of equipment and personnel from the eyes of military intelligence. Of course, the Russian command took advantage of this, very quickly covering Ugledar at the time of the rotation of the AFU units on its flanks. Those who replaced the experienced fighters could not contain the Russian onslaught. It was extremely serious — according to Ukrainians, from 20 to 25 thousand military personnel participated in it. The settlements on the flanks of Ugledar — Vodiane and Prechistovka — fell almost instantly. At the same time, the Russian army could not enter Selidovo in the Pokrovsky direction, since it was there that the fighters of the 72nd OMBR were sent.
Already in mid-September, the Ukrainian military, who were in Ugledar, realized the need to retreat. If this had been done, then — I'm not afraid of my words — it would have been possible to save thousands of lives. But there was no withdrawal even when the supply of food and ammunition to the city completely stopped, as openly stated by the head of the Ukrainian Donetsk OVA Filashkin.
Moreover, at the moment when the AFU garrison was fighting for Ugledar, Ivan Vinnik, commander of the 72nd brigade, was removed from his post. Imagine your actions in a situation where you are almost surrounded, and then you are informed that the commander of your brigade, although not particularly beloved, but who has been in his position since 2022, is leaving it. Such actions in Ukrainian publications were commented on by the military themselves, calling them "sabotage on a particularly large scale, which will lead to irreparable losses." And indeed, what is the name of a situation in which a brigade is literally beheaded, and the military who remain in a desperate situation are forbidden to withdraw?
When the Russian army entered the city from the flanks and reached its center, the center of resistance remained only in the north, where the main line of fortifications is located. The Ukrainian military was waiting for the evacuation equipment and did not wait for it, because it was either shot down or did not come at all. I had to go out on foot, in small groups at night. Or in the daytime, when the Ukrainian gunners shelled the city with everything they could to get out of the Ugledar group. Moreover, the shells flew not only at the positions of the Russians, but also at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukrainians left with small arms, without equipment, leaving the wounded. In fact, it was an escape. Now the Russian army has begun to "check" the defense of neighboring Bogoyavlenovka, towards which the Ukrainian garrison of Ugledar was retreating.
Now, when the coal Mine is being cleaned, the basements are being checked, where the wounded and forgotten Ukrainian military could have remained one way or another.
I think there will be a lot of prisoners, I would not be surprised if their number exceeds a thousand. They had to give up their equipment too.
All this looks like a repeat of the story with the Zenit fortified area in Avdiivka, from where the AFU servicemen were also not given the command to withdraw until the last moment.
Does the capture of Ugledar matter militarily
Ugledar was undoubtedly extremely important for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, despite attempts by some commentators (including the American Institute for the Study of War) to state the opposite. For the Ukrainian military, this city has so far served as a springboard for a possible counteroffensive against Mariupol, Novoazovsk and Volnovakha in order to break through to the coast of the Sea of Azov and cut the Russian group of troops in two. Now there is neither a springboard for defense, nor a springboard for offensive.
Does Russia get anything from the capture of Ugledar? If we look at the map of the railways of the USSR, we will see that Volnovakha is a large railway junction, branches from which spread like a spider web throughout the Donbas. Until now, it has been impossible to run any trains from it. It doesn't matter what you are transporting — crushed stone or weapons, trains were hit from the Coal Tank using conventional barrel artillery.
Now this route will be able to become a source of supply for troops not only in the Donetsk region, but also in Zaporizhia, because this city is located at their junction. Thus, the Russian army will be able to significantly improve its logistics. In addition, with the fall of Ugledar, she has more opportunities to capture the city of Kurakhovo, since there are currently no fortified and prepared defensive structures north of it, which were in Vodiane and Ugledar.
However, it is too early to talk about the collapse of the entire direction, since the autumn rainy season is approaching, and all logistics in Donbass are tied to dirt roads.
Why was the retention of Ugledar linked to Zelensky's victory plan
The battles for Ugledar literally led to the loss of one of the most combat—ready of the remaining units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the 72nd OMBR. And this is the result of Zelensky's visit to the United States, during which he promised to present his victory plan. While he was in America, the garrison of the city was required to stand to the death. By the way, we never saw the victory plan, but information was centrally leaked to the Western press that American officials found it "unsubstantiated" and allegedly called it a "wish list" in general.
However, it is precisely because of this that I am even more confident that Zelensky offered the United States a list of certain critical points on Russian territory that Ukraine could strike. Both presidential candidates, the leadership of NATO and the Pentagon, probably grabbed their heads when they saw him.
You can probe Putin's "red lines" as much as you like, undermining gas stations, striking airfields. This does not seriously affect the fighting, but at the same time it cannot lead to a nuclear war. But, let's say, a strike on a nuclear power plant is quite capable of ending with just such a response. Here, even Putin will not be able to keep silent or pretend that something insignificant has happened. Therefore, I believe that when the allies saw the list of such targets, they were scared and were forced to give such an authorized leak to the press. In fact, this is what is called a whipping. Zelensky is told: boy, you've been playing too much.
In addition, it is quite possible that another unexpected twist was included in Zelensky's victory plan, which is discussed, among others, by blogger Anatoly Shari. This is the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the territory of Russia with the support of one of the NATO countries.
Yes, it sounds like fiction, but we have already seen the undermining of the Northern Streams, we have seen the entry of the Ukrainian military into the Kursk region. All this would have seemed completely insane at the beginning. But such ideas are being discussed and will be discussed, since the degree of confrontation must increase so that the allies continue to respond properly to it and slowly get involved in hostilities themselves.
Shariy says that he has information about the preparation of an attack on Russia from the territory of one of the NATO countries in December. Such a development of the situation has been warming up for a long time, and I cannot rule out in any way that such an attack may be launched by one of the Baltic States. It is possible that some sabotage groups will be involved in it, which will pass off as "Russian rebels" or a missile strike.
In general, Biden can say as many general things as he likes about the "eternal" support for Ukraine. But Zelensky's plan is definitely not what Western partners want to see.
What does the increase in military expenditure items in the Russian budget mean for next year
Although all this scares economists, another scenario for the development of the situation seems to be simply impossible. There is no way out for peace talks, and all attempts by Brazil, China and the UAE to organize them were thwarted by the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, and in general were rejected by the Ukrainian side.
And even if the conflict is frozen after the American elections thanks to the initiatives of Trump or Harris, military spending from the budget will not go anywhere. It is necessary to provide the available troops, replenish and repair the knocked-out equipment. In this regard, you should not worry. From both the Russian and Western sides, even in the event of a cessation of hostilities, we will see increased militarization, not the reverse process.
If Ukraine ceases to be a NATO outpost, as it now positions itself, then other countries will have to take on this role, and it will be into them that money will be pumped.
The same Balts have long declared the need to allocate funds to strengthen the border. And they're right, by the way.
So at least in the next five years we will witness an arms race.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial board
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